Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.226572 3.000953 4.081986 5.750743 8.356340e+00 12.444173 1.973306e+01
2025-04-13 1.285238 1.952814 3.046656 5.095243 9.166951e+00 17.788552 4.071109e+01
2025-04-20 0.894421 1.502908 2.649010 5.219623 1.175075e+01 31.217343 1.201068e+02
2025-04-27 0.682398 1.256050 2.487097 5.794302 1.679152e+01 67.140235 6.177454e+02
2025-05-04 0.540498 1.079068 2.382333 6.563322 2.518207e+01 173.391502 9.472796e+03
2025-05-11 0.422044 0.898937 2.172464 6.941407 3.508587e+01 467.424968 8.645752e+06
2025-05-18 0.320266 0.713981 1.842779 6.594998 4.201398e+01 1119.804111 NaN
2025-05-25 0.243505 0.561419 1.522778 5.956751 4.615823e+01 2563.538122 NaN
2025-06-01 0.203210 0.489821 1.420966 6.300823 6.595316e+01 17682.372956 NaN
2025-06-08 0.171397 0.429573 1.323903 6.605463 9.463595e+01 529867.882803 NaN
2025-06-15 0.148571 0.387125 1.269097 7.181499 1.496762e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.129369 0.348746 1.208222 7.690371 2.381085e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.107722 0.296633 1.064479 7.321661 3.030293e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.089257 0.249372 0.916832 6.660304 3.438688e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.078676 0.225860 0.869524 7.028619 5.860551e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.071729 0.212843 0.867691 8.055452 1.409471e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.066057 0.202551 0.875058 9.413047 4.507169e+03 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.059699 0.187447 0.845158 10.182165 1.353039e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.052440 0.166518 0.766365 9.764637 2.434642e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.045631 0.145611 0.676209 8.833109 3.023778e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.041900 0.136328 0.656265 9.487679 1.695440e+05 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.038518 0.127515 0.634110 10.077204 2.466768e+06 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 0.035901 0.121222 0.625804 11.132324 NaN NaN NaN